Rethinking the AI Race: Why AI Policy Needs More China Expertise

The "AI race" narrative between the US and China has shaped AI safety discourse over the past few years. Yet while the narrative has some merits, it rests on empirical assumptions that don't fully hold up, and it can be counterproductive for international governance going forward. This talk argues that the international community, and especially middle powers like Australia, can benefit from a more nuanced, empirically grounded understanding of AI development in China. Some practical ways to do this will be proposed.